Should we fear the market?
By S. Aprov

In the LAX airport lounge, I sit quietly on a comfortable leather chair, laptop on my knees, engaged in text chat with a friend. We regularly meet in the Second Life chat room where we use human like avatars to interact.
“Is that the kind of woman you like?” my friend’s text message reads.
I look at her online avatar. She has folded both arms across her chest, and sports an impudent smirk.
“Margarita” I text “why would you say that. Are you jealous?”
Her response is immediate.
“In Spain there are real men” Margarita quips. “I don’t know why I waste my time with you!”
I rub my forehead in exasperation, and my finger hesitates over the website’s exit button. Today, my Second Life friend, Margarita, has gone too far. I think the doctor from Spain has had a bad day at the clinic. Perhaps she has other issues. Maybe this is why we so often end up in the Tai Chi simulation together? Perhaps something is lost in the text only chat. I cannot use the microphone in the lounge.
As I ponder this point, I’m interrupted.
“Hi! How are you?”
From behind my padded seat, a familiar voice calls to me. It’s young, vibrant and confident. Over the din of other voices in the lounge, there’s something unique and refined about it.
“I almost didn’t see you” the voice adds.
I turn and see the smiling face of Janet Hammerstein. She is the thirty something woman whom I befriended in Vancouver. Her light brown hair is fashionably layered and styled. She carries her Blackberry in one hand while the other grips the black handle of a small wheeled suitcase. She wears a tight blue skirt that perfectly highlights her slim waist, one that has never experienced childbirth, and a matching blue blazer with buttons undone that partially exposes an expensive white silk blouse.
“Well -- are you going to answer?” Janet asks.
As usual, she’s thrown herself into the middle of my affairs.
“Am I going to answer what?”
“The chat box on your laptop is flashing orange” Janet replies. “I think someone on Second Life wants an answer.”
There is a knowing grin on her face.
I quickly slam the laptop closed. My Dell can take a good beating and my friend from Spain, Doctor Margarita will have to suffer the indignity of an emergency shut down. I figure she deserves it. She’s done it to me plenty of times.
“Wow - that was brutal” Janet quips. “What do you do when the wife catches you?”
Janet knows I am married and an irreverent smile emerges on her face as she sits beside me. She’s unable to stifle her laughter, and my eyes narrow. Perhaps her provocative nature is why I like her so much.
Sensing she’s pushed me too far; Janet puts a gentle hand on my shoulder. Its aim is to comfort. Janet’s touch is soft; there is nothing hard about this woman, though I expect she is no pushover.
“Don’t worry” Janet adds. “I’m on Second Life too. I have my secrets. It’s a great place to work out your fantasies. Anyhow, fancy meeting you at LAX. Coming or going?”
With a simple touch and a few words, Janet has assuaged my discomfort, and I quickly remember our time together at the World Money Show in Vancouver. The April show was several months ago, but many of the details are still fresh in my mind. Today, other things trouble me.
“Actually, I’m going. I came to visit a client in LA.”
“Oh you mean Sarah Lindale? How’s she doing?” Janet asks.
“She’s doing well, thanks. The gunshot wound is healing nicely, but no, I saw another client. He’s worried about the economy and his portfolio, that kind of stuff!”
Janet’s smile turns to a frown, and she looks pensive.
“Well, actually” Janet begins “I’m worried too. California is in a bit of a bind right now, and they’re talking about layoffs in the public sector, including the university system. So, my teaching job could be at stake.”
I look carefully at this successful young woman, this university professor, and wonder how such a confident person could say this, but I suppose anything is possible these days. She looks to me for some reassurance with her large blue eyes.
“Well, it’s not all bad” I stammer. “I mean, I know about the woes of the public service in California and other U.S. states. The economy isn’t good, but it’s not in depression either. Look at this report I’ve received on my Blackberry.”
I quickly flip to an e-report on the U.S. Economy which amongst many negative numbers shows some positive job growth in the U.S. Another e-report shows a decline in U.S. Jobless Claims.
“And what about your beloved stock market?” she asks sullenly. There is a measure of sympathy in her voice.
“Well of course, there’s a never ending stream of naysayers and doomsters. Look at this message of doom and gloom” I reply. “And the market technicals are bad, but not dismal. Look here.”
I flip to another series of e-reports. The first tells us to be cautious since the economic fundamentals are unknown. It says the market’s next rise depends on economic fundamentals backstopping any market rally. The next e-report states the economy will muddle through.  Both are from well respected market prognosticators.
“Yikes! What if things don’t work out?” Janet blurts out. There is genuine horror in her face. “My stocks have done nothing, but go down!”
I watch her put her hand, fingernails carefully painted and manicured, over her mouth as she becomes agitated. I feel sorry for her and for the millions of others who’ve lost so much in the last few years.
“Janet” I say carefully “sometimes, nothing but bad news can actually be good news. I don’t know how many times in the last twenty years I’ve heard the world is coming to an end. I have friends who’re stocking up for the end of the world! It’s never panned out that way. Something always turns up, a new trend, a new technology, whatever. The United States is at the epicenter of the world economy, and it may take time, but Americans are the most resourceful group of business people the world has ever seen. Look at this e-report.”
It’s a positive spin on why we won't have a double dip recession.
Janet furls her brows and crosses her arms over her chest. Her movement is so tight it begins to crush her jacket underneath. She doesn’t believe me; her mind has been saturated by a never ending stream of bad news.
“And what would you say about the U.S. dollar and U.S. debt?” Janet asks
I relax and sit back in my chair.
"I think the U.S. dollar could be devalued, but you’re an economist. Remember what happened after the Plaza Accord in 1985 when the U.S. dollar was devalued? Did the world come to an end? And as to the U.S. debt, yes the governmental system in the U.S. does need reform and so does the entitlement system. There could be some problems if the U.S. dollar is devalued. The basic problem is the size of the total U.S. debt. Everyone cites it as a $100 trillion or more, an impossible number. But do you think the true debt is really this big? With one stroke of the pen, governments could reduce or abolish entitlements, and the nominal U.S. debt would be the only number to consider. According to the U.S. debt clock the total nominal U.S. federal and state debt is 15 to 16 trillion, not 100 trillion. That’s a slightly different picture, no? And I don’t count personal debt in the picture. That’s for the individual to worry about. Cruel as it may sound, bankruptcy court will solve many problems there. The key is U.S. governmental solvency.”
Janet’s tense face has softened and her fine mind begins to consider this scenario.
In the background, I hear an announcement. My plane is boarding.
“I’m sorry” I say. “It’s time to leave.”
There’s a look of disappointment in her face, and I sense that she thinks we might not meet again. In a platonic way, I fear the same. I offer her my business card. I wonder if she’ll accept.
“Thank you” she says, and looking less than interested I begin to rush off.
When I’m a few feet a way, I turn and call to her “Email me some time?”
A smile emerges on her face.
“What’s your avatar name?” Janet shouts.
“What?” I call out from a distance.
“On Second Life, what’s the name of your avatar, so I can find you?” Janet asks.
“Haha, you wish” I jokingly reply. “That’s a secret!”
Janet smirks, and I lose sight of her as I disappear into the crowd of business travelers and vacationers with children in tow. Perhaps I will see her again, perhaps not.
As I reach the passenger line for my trip back to Toronto, I stand my wheeler upright and reach for my Blackberry. I have two new messages. One is from my wife. The kids have been a handful, and apparently, I have a long list of errands before I come home. The other is from my Second Life friend, the Spanish doctor. She’s complaining about my impromptu exit from the chat room.
I sigh heavily. I suppose I was rude to Margarita, but I sometimes wonder about my friendship with her. Still, in my mind, once a friend always a friend. I hate good byes. Secretly, I also have a grudging admiration for Margarita's determined nature. There is always a fire in her online voice, and that's something I like.
I look at the crowd ahead of me, a sea of irritable people. Most stand and complain about flight delays while others furiously answer text messages. Children tug at parents’ arms and cry.
I wonder who these adult business travelers are. I suspect many will return to empty homes tonight despite their success.
I open up my Blackberry again and reread the message my wife sent me. On second thought, I think I will do my errands gladly. I’m thankful that someone is waiting for me when I return. I like certainty.
As I wait in line, I wonder why I’m an investor.

Until next time
Adios
AP